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The Bigger Picture – S&P 500 – Hurst Cycles market update 27 November 2019



In this market update I consider what the recent bullishness in the S&P 500 means about the bigger picture.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all our US constituents! Here are your Black Friday and Cyber Monday Hurst Cyles specials: https://sentienttrader.com/thanksgiving/

Previous market updates in this series are here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLABegw3sm4_CC4KciwPiRwgc6NdZ3Aqge

The Core Concepts of Hurst cycles PDF can be downloaded (for free) here: http://bit.ly/2qfp5d1

The FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) is a very powerful tool. If you are interested in learning more about it, please take a look at these videos: http://bit.ly/FLD-info

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Red Dragon Leo
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Red Dragon Leo

Nice timing for putting out this video as the DOW actually topped on the 27th (SPX a few days later). It looks like we've started the move down into mid-December (2019) as today and yesterday had a pretty nice drop. My guess is a rally back up into this Friday or early next week and then one more move down into a low between the 16th to the 18th. Year end rally after that I guess? You covered a lot in the video. I've watched it several times to see the "big picture", which if we do drop into mid-2020… Read more »

Peter Mc Call
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Peter Mc Call

Very interesting and illuminating. I hope you continue these instructive cycle analyses/tutorials on the S&P 500. They help relieve the anxieties of watching day-to-day ups and downs.

Socrate X
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Socrate X

Excellent update, and thanks for widening the view by looking again at the bigger picture.I wonder about two things: is there a way to link the stock market cycles with cycles in other markets, like gold or commodities or currencies to identify any relationships between them; secondly would you make a big picture update on EURUSD, first because the last time I saw one was probably over a year ago if not longer, but also to see if Hurst cycles are as effective in other assets as they seem to be on US stock indices.Again thank you for these very… Read more »

Josh Ladgrove
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Josh Ladgrove

Thanks so much David, really great analysis. The bullishness is interesting and also a bit suspect.

Mark Walmsley
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Mark Walmsley

It seems to me that Sentient Trader provides a precise description of what has happened. Less so about what might happen…

Mahesh Khadka
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Mahesh Khadka

I always like to listen to your videos as it provides many alternatives and helps viewers like me to think and experiment with conjunction with other ideas (volume, market breadth, waves, planetary conjunctions and cycles). The longer the video, the better I find. Thank you.

melvyntanyc
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melvyntanyc

Thanks David. When do you see approximately the 18 month cycle peak? (Not mentioned on your video)

Louis Brayton
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Louis Brayton

Are there any Elliott wave practitioners that see a possible (over)extended 5th wave as an explanation? There have also been several other indicators heralded lately like the Yield Curve Inversion Indicator, the Hindenburg Omen Indicator, etc,. Factor in the potential for China to pull out of the trade deal because of Trump signing the Hong Kong resolution and none of this looks good. Not to be too gloomy but we might just see a decent drop in the market…

Greg Holzmeyer
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Greg Holzmeyer

I think this move definitely adds weight to the 6 year cycle theory. I've examined a lot of 20 day FLD interaction cycles, but it's just a fraction of the number you have analyzed. Have you ever encountered a situation where the market is so bullish that NONE of the interactions break below the FLD? This cycle is looking like both the D and possibly F interactions haven't even been strong enough to break the FLD. Does this give us a little preview that the NEXT 80 day cycle almost certainly has to be "less bullish" than this one?

Cycles Fan
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Cycles Fan

IMO, the dominant LT cycle in the market is a 7 year cycle, not a 6 year one. The last 2 were the 2009 and 2016 lows. The October 2011 and December 2018 lows were early occurrences of its sub cycle which normally should be a 3-4 year cycle. October 2011 was 31 months from the March 2009 low and December 2018 was 34 months from the February 2016 low. Since 2009, the common length of the 18 month cycle has been 16 months: March 2009-July 2010(16)-October 2011(15)-June 2013(20)-October 2014(16)-February 2016(16)-August 2017(18)-December 2018(16). Therefore, the next 18 month cycle low… Read more »

Manish Sharma
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Manish Sharma

Nice analysis and excellent explanation. Thanks for sharing it.

Robert Padgette
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Robert Padgette

David, I may show my ignorance here or just bad memory from the FLD Trading course I did a few years ago.  You have the potential move down into the pending 80d trough labeled as a Category F.  Why wouldn't the move down into the 20d trough around 11/20 be a Category F followed by a G up and now the move down would be a Category H to complete all of this 80d cycle? Always appreciate your videos.

Ke Cao
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Ke Cao

Hi thanks for the informative video! I have a question about the 80 day cycle trough. So I counted 80 days from the date Oct 3rd (the 40 week cycle trough), and I ended up with the date Friday Dec 20th, which is the 3rd week of December. But in the video you mentioned the 80 day cycle trough will be in the 1st or 2nd week of December. Is there anything wrong with my counting, what am I missing here? Thanks very much in advance!

Graham Hart
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Graham Hart

David-based on your default analysis you've had for quite some time, is it possible that a 40w trough could appear in the next week or two? You had one pinned for mid-end November so I wonder- how big is that window (40w trough)? I'm just not quite ready to agree that we already had that 40w trough in October. Just doesn't line up quite right with my charts..I'm forced to raise an eyebrow 🤨 I observed a tremendous amount of puts entering the market in the last few drops and I think the last bit of price action was the… Read more »

Mark Walmsley
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Mark Walmsley

Hi David. This has been the best video yet! I have a few questions which I've emailed in. Look forward to seeing more, any news on Bitcoin or Gold?

Also you mention again about the peaks not being synchronised as its mathematically not possible, I wonder if there has ever been any consideration that sometimes the peaks take over control of price action at times and then as time goes on the throughs take back control, does that make sense?

Greg Holzmeyer
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Greg Holzmeyer

Enjoyed the video. Please check the support@sentienttrader email for an urgent private communication.